Parts of East Volusia could be underwater

IMAGE COURTESY ARCHITECTURE 2030
The future — This illustration shows what Daytona Beach will look like when the sea level rises by 2 meters (illustrated in blue). Data Source: USGS 10M DEM ©2007 2030, Inc. / Architecture 2030. Aerial map by Google.

How will rising sea affect us?

By Pat Hatfield
BEACON STAFF WRITER

posted Jun 12, 2009 - 8:53:14am

In Daytona Beach, residents are still cleaning up from May’s torrential, 20-plus inches of rain. Neighborhoods near the intersection of Nova Road and International Speedway Boulevard were particularly hard-hit.

If climatologists and other experts are right, far more East Coast neighborhoods will someday be all wet, due to rising sea levels.

University of Central Florida economist Dr. Mark Soskin talked about it May 27 at the Daytona Beach campus.

According to Soskin, in a short 20 years, parts of Daytona Beach, New Smyrna Beach and Palm Coast could be underwater.

While the claim is still controversial in some circles, a United Nations panel on climate change predicted sea levels could rise anywhere from 7 to 23 inches over the next century.

Now, scientists, including a member of the U.N. panel, wonder whether that assessment was too conservative, because polar ice sheets are melting much more quickly than anticipated, CNN reported Jan. 23.

While the increase in sea levels on our Atlantic coast may be closer to 6 inches than 6 feet in the next 20 years, the water is coming, and much faster than formerly predicted.

Soskin called the threat a contributor to falling real-estate values, “stratospheric” insurance costs and dropped coverage, not just in coastal areas, but countywide.

Catastrophe insurance has already failed in Florida, Soskin noted.

“It works due to the law of large numbers,” he said. When the risk can’t be spread among enough people, the costs spike. Floridians have already felt the sting of those spikes.

The state is almost broke from paying out claims from the last round of hurricanes through its own fund, and State Farm and Allstate insurance companies are pulling out of the state.

In Volusia and Flagler counties, 61,000 housing units worth $6.5 billion are at risk.

The high cost of repair and continued flooding would lead to a “blight,” with tarps, mold, asthma-related illnesses and more.

How much time we have to prepare is not really known. The increase in water levels may not be gradual, Soskin said.

“Events tend to be major, unpredictable and irreversible,” he said.

The increase in sea temperature will also bring more tropical storms and hurricanes to Florida, where they chew up coastlines.

Building sea walls at $3,000 to $4,000 per linear foot is not the solution. Water would quickly wash out the structure, along with beaches and ecosystems.

Roads and schools will have to be relocated. Tourist-related businesses will be hardest-hit in the economic sectors.

And West Volusia will not be immune to effects of a rising sea. Salt-water intrusion into East Volusia well fields will increase, pushing those cities to look westward for water, and to desalination. Perhaps the water wars have only just begun.

Water costs will increase fivefold or tenfold, Soskin said.

“Dry season is tourist season,” he said. Increased pressure on an already-stressed aquifer allows more brackish water to seep in.

How to respond

Decisions will have to be made about what land to try to protect and how, and who pays, as the water comes at us.

Soskin suggested a tax on hotel beds could be used to create environmental buffers along State Road A1A, and to pay for dune restoration and other work.

Local comprehensive plans need to be modified to prevent construction in vulnerable areas, especially on the coast, and to protect flood plains.

Building codes need to be updated, to include roof clips or straps, shutters and grading to address rising water levels and storms. Public investment in stormwater retention will be required.

Planning is needed for post-flood economic recovery and reclamation costs.

The political will to do these things is needed, and usually is lacking among elected officials, Soskin said, because there’s too much money involved in coastal developments.

After Soskin’s talk, a panel of experts discussed the coming crisis. Panel members were:

• Soskin

• Flagler County Sea Grant extension agent Maia McGuire

• Jim Spence, an environmentalist and director of the Pawpaw chapter of the Native Plant Society

• Halifax Chamber of Commerce director Jim Cameron

• Mark Watts, former president of the DeLand Area Chamber of Commerce and a land-use attorney.

Watts said it will be necessary to change our mind-set, and how we plan and develop communities, to effectively prepare for the rising sea level.

He likened our current thinking to that of the Austin Powers movie character, who stood in front of a giant steamroller shouting, but not getting out of its way.

The steamroller is coming at us, Watts said. A lack of understanding of the science is part of the problem.

Spence said in Flagler Beach, vegetation along A1A has been cut down. This let more sand shift about, causing continual cave-ins of the roadway. Now, DOT will probably build a sea wall to protect the road.

The panel agreed restoring coquina, sea grass and mangroves along coastlines and inlets could act as a buffer to protect coastal areas.

Spence warned that unless there’s a radical change in the way government operates, things aren’t going to change. He said it will take a grass-roots movement to spur officials into action.

“If we don’t start laying the foundations, we won’t be able to handle it in the future,” he said.

Soskin said problems will have to be tackled outside the government first, to inspire government to act.

“The beginning of change is an active and educated citizenry,” Watts said.

The forum was presented by The Betty and Walter Boardman Foundation.

— pat@beacononlinenews.com

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