NOAA: Season looks ‘average’

PHOTO COURTESY NOAA
Getting ready – NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco and Rear Admiral Philip M. Kenul, director, NOAA Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, prepare for weather surveillance of tropical storms and hurricanes.

By Pat Hatfield
BEACON STAFF WRITER

posted Jun 1, 2009 - 9:40:41am

Hurricane season begins Monday, June 1, and runs through November.

How are things looking for the 2009 season? About average, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict.

NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for a 50-percent probability of a near-normal season.

There’s a 25-percent probability of more storms that normal, and a 25-percent probability of fewer-than-normal storms.

Forecasters say there is a 70-percent chance of having nine to 14 named storms, of which four to seven could become hurricanes, including one to three major hurricanes.

Conditions monitored include enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters, and reduced wind shear, which could lead to more storms.

If cooler conditions develop in the equatorial Eastern Pacific this summer, or if ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic remain cooler than normal, we could have fewer storms.

The numbers are just a guide. “Prepare for each and every season regardless of the seasonal outlook. Even a near- or below-normal season can produce landfalling hurricanes, and it only takes one landfalling storm to make it a bad season,” Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said.

Volusia County Emergency Management Director Charles Craig shares that opinion.

Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in an “average” year in 1992, he said.

In 2009, we’re still in a multi-decade cycle of greater tropical weather that began in the 1990s and could continue for another 20 or 30 years, Craig said.

NOAA’s prediction does not include exactly when and where storms may hit.

Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center forecasts how weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was an active hurricane season, with 16 named storms formed, eight of which became hurricanes. Five of those became major hurricanes.

A storm with rotating (cyclonic) winds of 39-73 mph is a tropical storm. It becomes a Category 1 hurricane if winds reach 74-95 mph. A Category 2 storm has winds of 96-110 mph. A Category 3 storm has winds of 111-130 mph. A Category 4 storm has winds of 131-155 mph, and a Category 5 has winds of 156 mph or greater.

“NOAA strives to produce the best possible forecasts to help emergency officials and residents better prepare for an approaching storm,” Dr. Jane Lubchenco, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator, said.

— info@beacononlinenews.com

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